End-game for Gadaffi no longer of his making

Update 2! Now even Saif al-Islam Gaddafi has appeared in Tripoli surrounded by his supporters and claiming that they are in control  and that his father is well. This could be a bitter end-game after the euphoria of yesterday.

Update! Mohammed Gaddafi – the older brother of Saif – has managed to escape from house arrest with the help of Gaddafi loyal troops!

He should have taken up the Chavez offer to move to Venezuela or have slunk away to his bolt-hole in Belarus. He should have used his friend Berlusconi’s travel agency to get away. Those options are no longer available to him. The earlier “negotiations” with French and EU contacts foundered on the riduculous demands made by his children.

Now it is reported that his youngest son Khamis has been killed.  In the last 2 days 2 or maybe 3 more of his sons have been captured by the rebels.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) has confirmed that Saif al Islam and his older brother Mohammed have been detained.

CC prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo said: “It is very important to make clear there is an obligation to surrender Saif to the ICC in accordance with the Security Council resolution.”

Saif was reportedly captured in a western tourist village of Libya, while Mohammed surrendered to rebel forces and is under house arrest.

But Gaddafi himself  has not been seen in public since May. One of his last TV appearances was in mid-June when he was pictured playing chess with the World Chess Federation president Kirsan Ilyumzhinov. He was heard on radio on Saturday saying that he was in Tripoli but this does not say much. Reports that he may be on his way to South Africa were denied by the Zuma government.  The BBC reports that he may no longer be in Tripoli:

One of the most persistent rumours is that he left Tripoli a while ago and may have gone to his birthplace of Sirte, on the western coast, or his ancestral home of Sabha in the south.

It is possible but unlikely that he has remained in his compound – with its bunker – in the Libyan capital. Fierce fighting is currently being reported around his Bab al-Azizia residence.

How the rebels will treat Gaddafi and his children will be quite telling about what we can expect in Libya. In 40 years of power as the “peoples leader” he has not built up any of the country’s institutions and “clan power” and clan politics may rule for some time.

Cracks appear in the Gaddafi façade

It was a only matter of time before the survival reflex started to kick in and start the propagation of cracks within the façade surrounding the Gaddafi family and clan. But replacing him with one of his sons would be a case of one step forward and two back.

As the NYT reports:

Saif al-Islam el-Gaddafi

At least two sons of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi are proposing a resolution to the Libyan conflict that would entail pushing their father aside to make way for a transition to a constitutional democracy under the direction of his son Seif al-Islam el-Qaddafi, a diplomat and a Libyan official briefed on the plan said Sunday.

…. The proposal offers a new window into the dynamics of the Qaddafi family at a time when the colonel, who has seven sons, is relying heavily on them. Stripped of one of his closest confidantes by the defection of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa and isolated by decades of attempted coups and internal purges, he is leaning on his sons as trusted aides and military commanders.

The idea also touches on longstanding differences among his sons. While Seif and Saadi have leaned toward Western-style economic and political openings, Colonel Qaddafi’s sons Khamis and Mutuassim are considered hard-liners. Khamis leads a fearsome militia focused on repressing internal unrest.

Saif al-Islam el-Gaddafi is thought to have plagiarised his PhD thesis at the LSE but considering the former German Defence Minister’s plagiarism perhaps this is an acceptable level of ethics for European politicians!

Related: Gaddafi’s children are a motley – but dangerous – lot

Libyans must be allowed to get rid of Gaddafi themselves

The Gaddafi end-game

Even though oil and gas is at stake and this seems to concentrate the minds of some western politicians quite remarkably, any Western military intervention in Libya  would be  an insult to all those who have given their lives in opposing Gaddafi (and of course such intervention was never thought of in Tunisia and Egypt since they have little oil).

The Libyans need to get rid of Gaddafi themselves and their efforts and their scarifices should not be disparaged and mocked by an Iraq-like military intervention. Creation of a no fly zone or other limited actions to restrict Gaddafi’s potential for bloodshed but which did not involve any form of invasion is the maximum that should be considered.

But there are many shallow and unreliable politicians around in Europe. The Telegraph reports:

David Cameron and other Western leaders are on the brink of ordering military action against Col Muammar Gaddafi amid fears that the Libyan dictator could use chemical weapons against his own people.

The Prime Minister disclosed that he would not rule out “the use of military assets” as Britain “must not tolerate this regime using military forces against its own people”.

Sir John Major backed the stance and made clear that he believes the option of military force should not be removed from the table, if Gaddafi uses chemical weapons, such as mustard gas, on his own people.

But he said that the use of armed force should be “the last resort” and should be backed by overwhelming international support through the United Nations.

Asked if the international community should toughen its stance towards Libya if Gaddafi unleashes chemical weapons against his people, Sir John said: “I think it would and I think it should.”

I have no idea if the mustard gas is real or whether it is just “sexed up” in the style of the WMD stories propagated by a morally bankrupt Tony Blair, but I cannot help thinking of Iraq and the lies we were told then. Military intervention for saving life is justifiable but not when it is done for the sake of destroying non-existent WMD’s or when it is actually just to secure oil resources. How much healthier it would have been in Iraq if the Iraqis had got rid of Saddam themselves without the manipulation of the UN by the Bush/Blair lies and the subsequent massive and bloodthirsty intervention (and where the bloodshed still continues). After the events of the last 2 months and the downfall of Mubarak in Egypt I wonder how long Saddam could have continued before he would have been overthrown.

The use of fears of yet another WMD – in this case mustard gas – to justify an intervention seems like a rerun of Iraq  and will carry little credibility without some very clear evidence from an unimpeachable source. David Cameron or bunga bunga Berlusconi or the flighty Sarkozy just do not command that level of trust.

Perhaps Gaddafi should be allowed to join his friends in Belarus and he could recruit a new lot of Ukrainian nurses as well.

The end is nigh for Gaddafi: Galyna Kolotnytska has returned to Ukraine

According to Svenska Dagbladet, Galyna Kolotnytska who was Gaddafi’s personal nurse has landed in Ukraine along with 120 other Ukrainians.

She had announced to her daughter last Friday that she would be returning from Tripoli after 9 years in Libya.

Galyna Kolotnytska : Photo scanpix

The last straw? Gaddafi’s nurse is going home

As Gaddafi’s forces left Tajura – which is on the outskirts of Tripoli – the end-game is being played out for Gaddafi. There could still be considerable violence and bloodshed in Tripoli but my expectation (hope?) is that the loyalty felt towards the Libyan dictator is not going to be strong enough to keep them going for much longer. Only self-interest on the part of those closely associated with Gadaffi will keep some with him till the bitter end.

The WSJ reports that even his “voluptuous Ukrainian ” nurse, Galyna Kolotnytska, told her family yesterday that she will soon be returning home.

Galyna Kolotnytska : image vysotska.blogspot.com photo Segodnya

Embattled Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi is set to be deserted by another close ally after his Ukrainian nurse said she was heading home. Galyna Kolotnytska, described in a diplomatic cable published by Wikileaks as a “voluptuous blond” who “travel[s] everywhere” with Col. Gadhafi, called her family in Kiev on Friday to say she intends to return to Ukraine, her daughter told daily Segodnya.

“Mom got in touch yesterday. She said she was now in Tripoli,” Tetyana Kolotnytska said. “She spoke in a calm voice, asked us not to worry and said she’d soon be home.” According to the cable from September 2009, contacts in Tripoli told U.S. diplomats that Col. Gadhafi “relies heavily” on Ms. Kolotnytska, then 38, as “she alone ‘knows his routine.'”

The cable also reported claims from unnamed sources that the eccentric Libyan leader and the nurse, part of a retinue of four Ukrainians, “have a romantic relationship.” Ms. Kolotnytska’s daughter said her mother had been in Libya for nine years, originally employed in a hospital before starting work for Col. Gadhafi. “Other Ukrainian women also work for him as nurses. Mom is one of them,” she said. “For some reason, he doesn’t trust Libyan women with this matter.”

Perhaps his mistrust of Libyan women will play a prominent role in the inevitable end. Poison in the desert  – either self administered or by those around him – once his Ukrainian nurses are gone could be what awaits.