No need to panic about global warming

There’s no compelling scientific argument for drastic action to ‘decarbonize’ the world’s economy.

Editor’s Note: The following has been signed by the 16 scientists listed at the end of the article: 

A candidate for public office in any contemporary democracy may have to consider what, if anything, to do about “global warming.” Candidates should understand that the oft-repeated claim that nearly all scientists demand that something dramatic be done to stop global warming is not true. In fact, a large and growing number of distinguished scientists and engineers do not agree that drastic actions on global warming are needed. …. 

Perhaps the most inconvenient fact is the lack of global warming for well over 10 years now. This is known to the warming establishment, as one can see from the 2009 “Climategate” email of climate scientist Kevin Trenberth: “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t.” But the warming is only missing if one believes computer models where so-called feedbacks involving water vapor and clouds greatly amplify the small effect of CO2.

The lack of warming for more than a decade—indeed, the smaller-than-predicted warming over the 22 years since the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) began issuing projections—suggests that computer models have greatly exaggerated how much warming additional CO2 can cause. Faced with this embarrassment, those promoting alarm have shifted their drumbeat from warming to weather extremes, to enable anything unusual that happens in our chaotic climate to be ascribed to CO2.

The fact is that CO2 is not a pollutant. CO2 is a colorless and odorless gas, exhaled at high concentrations by each of us, and a key component of the biosphere’s life cycle. Plants do so much better with more CO2 that greenhouse operators often increase the CO2 concentrations by factors of three or four to get better growth. This is no surprise since plants and animals evolved when CO2 concentrations were about 10 times larger than they are today. Better plant varieties, chemical fertilizers and agricultural management contributed to the great increase in agricultural yields of the past century, but part of the increase almost certainly came from additional CO2 in the atmosphere. 

Although the number of publicly dissenting scientists is growing, many young scientists furtively say that while they also have serious doubts about the global-warming message, they are afraid to speak up for fear of not being promoted—or worse. They have good reason to worry. In 2003, Dr. Chris de Freitas, the editor of the journal Climate Research, dared to publish a peer-reviewed article with the politically incorrect (but factually correct) conclusion that the recent warming is not unusual in the context of climate changes over the past thousand years. The international warming establishment quickly mounted a determined campaign to have Dr. de Freitas removed from his editorial job and fired from his university position. Fortunately, Dr. de Freitas was able to keep his university job.

This is not the way science is supposed to work, but we have seen it before—for example, in the frightening period when Trofim Lysenko hijacked biology in the Soviet Union. Soviet biologists who revealed that they believed in genes, which Lysenko maintained were a bourgeois fiction, were fired from their jobs. Many were sent to the gulag and some were condemned to death. …… 

….

Claude Allegre, former director of the Institute for the Study of the Earth, University of Paris; J. Scott Armstrong, cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting and the International Journal of Forecasting; Jan Breslow, head of the Laboratory of Biochemical Genetics and Metabolism, Rockefeller University; Roger Cohen, fellow, American Physical Society; Edward David, member, National Academy of Engineering and National Academy of Sciences; William Happer, professor of physics, Princeton; Michael Kelly, professor of technology, University of Cambridge, U.K.; William Kininmonth, former head of climate research at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Richard Lindzen, professor of atmospheric sciences, MIT; James McGrath, professor of chemistry, Virginia Technical University; Rodney Nichols, former president and CEO of the New York Academy of Sciences; Burt Rutan, aerospace engineer, designer of Voyager and SpaceShipOne; Harrison H. Schmitt, Apollo 17 astronaut and former U.S. senator; Nir Shaviv, professor of astrophysics, Hebrew University, Jerusalem; Henk Tennekes, former director, Royal Dutch Meteorological Service; Antonio Zichichi, president of the World Federation of Scientists, Geneva.

h/t Jimmy

But it is the party’s Executive Committee (Verkställande utskott) who come out of this debacle  as being particularly incompetent. No doubt Juholt himself was lacking in the competence and leadership qualities necessary to unite the party behind him. But it was the Executive Committee which displayed gross incompetence;  first in choosing a leader who would be constantly sniped at from within the party; secondly, incompetent in the coup-like manner in which they pulled Juholt’s name out of a hat; thirdly incompetent in not being able to discern Juholt’s lack of the leadership qualities necessary for the position; and finally incompetent in not being able to shield their “appointed” leader from the snipers and the baying media.

It may be that the current Social Democrats have outlived their time. There is a perception that their roots which lie deep in the “working class struggle” of a century ago have become irrelevant to and obsolete in modern Sweden. They need to reinvent themselves to be relevant in today’s world and it could be that the current implosion is a necessary – but not sufficient – part of the renewal.

But in the rush to find a new leader it seems that transparency could again be sacrificed leading to the appointment of another ham-strung leader.

It seems likely that the Executive Committee will once again – behind closed doors in some smoky back-room – attempt to “appoint and anoint” a new leader. But with the stresses and strains in the Party remaining un-addressed, yet another “least objectionable” name is unlikely to throw up a leader of any substance. A leader who can describe and communicate a vision and a direction for the Social Democrats needs to emerge from the grass-roots and it seems unlikely to me that back-room “king-making” will find such a person.

As today’s Svenska Dagbladet puts it (free translation):

The Social Democratic Executive Committee has a new meeting this afternoon to debate the future of the Party after yesterday’s resignation of Hakan Juholt. But
to begin an open process to find a new party leader does not work according to Ardalan Shekarabi former Chairman of the Young Social Democrats.

“We must designate a party leader and I think it should happen quickly. The sequence to be followed is that the Executive Committee proposes a name and the Party confirms, that’s my personal opinion” he said. …..

The dark side of solar energy: Der Spiegel graphic

The price for the headlong rush to renewable energy in Germany driven largely by a rampant Green party now has to be paid. Subsidies have exceeded 100 billion € but nothing of that has reached the consumer. But some developers and some entrepreneurs have made some not so  small fortunes.

Der Spiegel is not known for daring to challenge political correctness and has been one of the staunch supporters of the global warming orthodoxy. But even Der Spiegel is apalled:

The costs of subsidizing solar electricity have exceeded the 100-billion-euro mark in Germany, but poor results are jeopardizing the country’s transition to renewable energy. The government is struggling to come up with a new concept to promote the inefficient technology in the future.

….. For weeks now, the 1.1 million solar power systems in Germany have generated almost no electricity. The days are short, the weather is bad and the sky is overcast.  As is so often the case in winter, all solar panels more or less stopped generating electricity at the same time. To avert power shortages, Germany currently has to import large amounts of electricity generated at nuclear power plants in France and the Czech Republic. To offset the temporary loss of solar power, grid operator Tennet resorted to an emergency backup plan, powering up an old oil-fired plant in the Austrian city of Graz.

Solar energy has gone from being the great white hope, to an impediment, to a reliable energy supply. Solar farm operators and homeowners with solar panels on their roofs collected more than €8 billion ($10.2 billion) in subsidies in 2011, but the electricity they generated made up only about 3 percent of the total power supply, and that at unpredictable times.

The distribution networks are not designed to allow tens of thousands of solar panel owners to switch at will between drawing electricity from the grid and feeding power into it. Because there are almost no storage options, the excess energy has to be destroyed at substantial cost. German consumers already complain about having to pay the second-highest electricity prices in Europe.

….. 

New numbers issued by the pro-industry Rhine-Westphalia Institute for Economic Research (RWI) will only add fuel to the fire. The experts calculated the additional costs to consumers after more solar systems were connected to the grid than in any other previous month in December. Under Germany’s Renewable Energy Law, each new system qualifies for 20 years of subsidies. A mountain of future payment obligations is beginning to take shape in front of consumers’ eyes.

According to the RWI, the solar energy systems connected to the grid in 2011 alone will cost electricity customers about €18 billion in subsidy costs over the next 20 years. “The demand for subsidies is growing and growing,” says RWI expert Manuel Frondel. If all commitments to pay subsidies so far are added together, Frondel adds, “we have already exceeded the €100 billion level.” ….

Read the article

The new McCarthys in the US

• Senators Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), Kristen Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), Diane Feinstein(D -California), Harry Reid (D- Nevada), Ben Cardin (D-Md.)
• Motion Picture Association of America, Chris Dodd (Lobbyist and Chairman of MPAA and former Senator)
• News Corp., Time-Warner, Sony and Disney

Bloomberg  reports:

A shale-driven glut of natural gas has cut electricity prices for the U.S. power industry by 50 percent and reduced investment in costlier sources of energy. With abundant new supplies of gas making it the cheapest option for new power generation, the largest U.S. wind-energy producer, NextEra Energy Inc. (NEE), has shelved plans for new U.S. wind projects next year and Exelon Corp. (EXC) called off plans to expand two nuclear plants. Michigan utility CMS Energy Corp. (CMS) canceled a $2 billion coal plant after deciding it wasn’t financially viable in a time of “low natural-gas prices linked to expanded shale-gas supplies,” according to a company statement.

Paradoxically it is the rush to build subsidised renewable power which now creates a new market for gas turbine power plants. The daily setting of the sun and the unpredictability of clouds and winds means that – on average – renewable power requires about 70% of its capacity to be backed-up – usually by gas. Furthermore the unpredictability of renewable power disturbs grid stability and creates the need for other “balancing” power which can be brought on stream quickly. Here too gas turbines provide the possibility of building relatively cheap power plants which have a fast start-up.

And gas is going to be available for a long time to come.

Moving peaks

Bolomberg continues::

Mirroring the gas market, wholesale electricity prices have dropped more than 50 percent on average since 2008, and about 10 percent during the fourth quarter of 2011. …….

Shale Gas Boom

U.S. gas supplies have been growing since producers learned how to use hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to tap deposits locked in dense shale rock formations. Gas prices have been falling since mid-2008, when a global recession sapped demand just as drilling accelerated in the gas-rich Marcellus shale in the eastern U.S., according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Gas prices collapsed further in late 2011 on concerns mild winter weather in the U.S. will curb demand for the heating fuel. Gas is expected to stay below 2011’s average price of $4.026 for the next two years, priced at around $3.10 per million British thermal units for 2012 and $4 for 2013. ….

The gas glut is real in the US and is moving to Europe. Gas prices are coming down and electricity generation prices will follow. The gas turbine market had a boom in 2000 and again in 2007/8 and the next boom will come, I think, in 2013/14 when industrial production picks up after the current downturn.

Cheap gas is here to stay.

Deepak Das

Another massive case of misconduct by an established  scientist – not a humble post doc but a Director of Cardiovascular Research!! Once again a scientist of Indian origin in the US is involved – Prof. Deepak Das!

This time there are also clear commercial motives which takes scientific misconduct into the realms of criminal fraud!!!

Hartford Business:The University of Connecticut is rejecting nearly $1 million in federal grants awarded to one of its scientists found to have falsified many of his findings on the health benefits of wine.

The school announced Wednesday that an internal investigation against Dipak Das, a tenured surgery professor and director of the UConn Health Center’s Cardiovascular Research Center, found 145 counts of fabrication and falsification of data.
The school said it is now in the process of terminating Das’ employment. The UConn Health Center has also sent letters of notification to 11 scientific journals that had published studies conducted by Das based on his research.
The investigation into Das was sparked by an anonymous allegation of research irregularities in 2008. The school issued a report today, which totals approximately 60,000 pages, that says Das is guilty of 145 counts of fabrication and falsification of data. 

As a result of the investigation the Health Center has frozen all externally funded research in Das’ laboratory and declined to accept $890,000 in federal grants awarded to him.

Caediobrief reports:

Das had numerous publications on resveratrol and other nutrition-related cardiovascular subjects. According to an online biography, he was a founding editor and editor-in chief of the journal Antioxidant and Redox Signaling, and also served as associate editor of theAmerican Journal of Physiology: Heat and Circulatory Physiology and consulting editor of Molecular and Cellular Biochemistry.

Retraction Watch reported a commercial connection:

Das appears to have had a relationship with a Las Vegas resveratrol maker called, unsurprisingly, Longevinex. The company has promoted his research, and Das also shows up in a lengthy video touting the nutrient as the next aspirin. The infomercial is guided by an “investigative reporter” named Gailon Totheroh, who is affiliated with the Christian Broadcasting Network.

The Journals are:

• American Journal of Physiology – Heart & Circulatory
• Antioxidants & Redox Signaling
• Cellular Physiology & Biochemistry
• Free Radical Biology
• Free Radical Research
• Journal of Agriculture and Food Chemistry
• Journal of Cellular & Molecular Medicine
• Journal of Nutritional Biochemistry
• Journal of Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics
• Molecular & Cellular Cardiology
• Molecular & Cellular Chemistry

SAS – which used to be one of my favourite airlines – needs new owners with access to larger markets and with financial muscle.

Lufthansa was - and still is – the most likely buyer. But in the last 2 days the rumors of interest from Qatar have been driving up the SAS share price. Of course the rumors have been denied.

But  SAS is unsustainable as it is and  something is due to happen with SAS ownership this year. And my guess would be that the clear fit and benefits would point to Lufthansa rather than Quatar.

]]> http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2012/01/11/will-sas-be-acquired-by-qatar-or-lufthansa/feed/ 0 ktwop http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2012/01/10/light-blogging-while-on-assignment/ http://ktwop.wordpress.com/2012/01/10/light-blogging-while-on-assignment/#comments Tue, 10 Jan 2012 09:54:35 +0000 ktwop http://ktwop.wordpress.com/?p=7553 ]]> I am travelling again on an assignment and blogging will be light for a week or so.

Paying 2.5% of his income as tax is a pretty impressive case of tax avoidance (which is probably perfectly legal and not tax evasion). But it makes him a parasite. Some parasites are useful but he is not one of them.

The Telegraph:

Former Prime Minister Tony Blair channelled millions of pounds through a complicated web of companies and paid just a fraction in tax

Official accounts show a company set up by Mr Blair to manage his business affairs paid just £315,000 in tax last year on an income of more than £12 million. In that time, he employed 26 staff and paid them total wages of almost £2.3 million. ….

… Tax specialists who have studied the accounts have told The Sunday Telegraph that the tax paid in 2010 of £154,000 and £315,000 in 2011 appears low because costs have been offset against the administrative costs, which remain largely unexplained.

One City accountant, who did not wish to be named, said: “It is very difficult to see what these administrative costs could be. It is a very large amount for a business like this. I am sure it is legitimate but it is certainly surprising.

“The tax bill of £315,000 is explained by the large administrative costs that are being treated as tax allowable.”

Richard Murphy, a charted accountant who runs Tax Research LLP and has studied Mr Blair’s company accounts, said: “There is about £8 million which we don’t know where it goes. That money is unexplained. There is no indication at all why the administration costs are so high. What has happened to about £8 million which is being offset against tax?” …